In the first half of the domestic caustic soda market price overall good performance, part of the time the price continued to pull up, the transaction atmosphere is hot.In the middle of January – February, the overall price of domestic caustic soda market continued to rise. The main reasons are as follows: on the one hand, the pre-sale orders of Northwest caustic soda enterprises continued to be good in January. There was no pressure on the factory to sign orders, the inventory was always at a low level, and there was basically no sales pressure. On the other hand, the downstream alumina receiving order situation is good, especially the alumina factory in southwest China is obviously short of alkali, a large number of Xinjiang caustic soda source flow to the southwest region, leading to the continuous tight supply of Xinjiang caustic soda, insufficient stage delivery to traders, traders level caustic soda source is also not much; In addition, Hebei Wenfeng alumina production before stock, new part of the demand for caustic soda, caustic soda market also brought a certain positive boost; Other downstream terminal demand rigid demand replenishment and pre-holiday appropriate stock also brings good support to the price of caustic soda; Moreover, the price increase range of caustic soda enterprises in this round is relatively moderate, the acceptance capacity of downstream and traders is relatively controllable, and the market mentality is acceptable. Synthetic caustic soda factory prices continue to rise.While in the middle of 2 – in the middle of march, the domestic pianjian market prices continue to fall, after the brief standoff high main reason, as the previous piece of alkali prices rose to record highs, the downstream for high alkali resistance increasing, coupled with the underperforming period liquid alkali market prices, alkali factory sign the bill is not ideal, increasing pressure, inventory, Tablet alkali price continues to fall.From the middle and late March to the late June, the price of domestic caustic soda entered a sustained high firm and upward channel for about 3 months. Main reason, on the one hand, in 4 to 5 different regional logistics transport efficiency is low, the large base enterprise local time delivery is not free, the delivery cycle is long, lead to social inventories remained low, poor supply chain transmission stage, together with some piece of alkali enterprises at this stage to arrange maintenance, supply a further boost; On the other hand, the price of liquid alkali in eastern China keeps rising, and certain acceptance brings continuous positive boost to the price of caustic soda. Furthermore, the downstream alumina industry has strong support for the rigid demand for caustic soda, and according to Zhuochuang Information, alumina enterprises have low bauxite grade, increasing the amount of caustic soda is one of the main factors that continue to bring good boost; Moreover, in June, some large caustic soda enterprises focused on continuous maintenance, which made the good supporting effect of caustic soda supply side continued, and the pre-sale orders of caustic soda enterprises in various regions continued to be good, and the mentality of adjusting price continued to exist.From the current market situation, with the price of caustic soda rising for a long time, the downstream enthusiasm for the high price of caustic soda to receive goods decreased, caustic soda price increase has appeared significantly narrowed, and some traders have arbitrage shipment situation, the market increase mentality is more general. And with the end of June and early July of this round of maintenance period, the supply of caustic soda will gradually recover, the market as a whole bearish attitude will further amplify.But from the current piece of alkali enterprises to booking order to piece of alkali social inventories, piece of alkali enterprises there are still some booking to be delivered and alkali society inventory is still not high, the short term prices will bring some support to piece of alkali market, short-term piece of alkali factory prices are expected to run high consolidation, slashed its possibility is not big, piece of alkali market price down slightly overcast the possibility of existence. In the long term, with the completion of the current pre-sale orders and the end of the maintenance period, and the overall profitability of downstream industries is not good, the domestic market price of caustic soda is likely to continue to fall significantly.
Post time: Jul-25-2022